I need to be straight with you about something.
If you've been watching beef prices lately, you've probably noticed they keep climbing. And unfortunately, that trend isn't slowing down in 2026.
Our beef prices are sadly going to need to go up too, and I want to explain why... not just for our farm, but what's happening across the entire beef industry right now.
You deserve to know. You deserve answers. When your food budget gets blown out of the water, you shouldn't be left wondering why or feeling like you're just getting taken advantage of. So I'm going to lay it all out for you, both the national picture and what's happening right here at Triple E Farms.
What's Happening in the Beef Industry
The beef market is facing some serious challenges, and they're all hitting at once.
Before we get into it, let's get some farmer terminology straight:
Breeding StockHeadProcessingfeeder calfheifer
1- The Cattle Herd Has Shrunk... Dramatically
Right now, the U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level since the 1950s. We're talking about a 70-year low.
Here's a chart from the USDA-NASS and Livestock Marketing Information Center:
US BEEF COW INVENTORY (1920 to 2023 - per 1000 head)
Since 2019, the nation's beef herd has decreased by 8 million head of cattle. That's not a small number. And we're now in the 7th consecutive year of herd contraction.
Why? A few reasons:
Drought. Years of severe drought forced ranchers across the country to sell off breeding stock because they simply couldn't keep them alive. Ponds dried up. Springs stopped running. Ranchers were hauling water by the truckload or paying record prices for hay shipped from hundreds or even thousands of miles away. Many had to make the heartbreaking decision to sell cattle they'd spent decades (sometimes generations) building.
Record production costs. Between 2021 and 2024, the cost to raise and feed cattle went up 55%. Feed, fuel, equipment, labor... everything got more expensive.
And here's the thing: a lot of ranchers couldn't afford to keep going because they're locked into contracts with the mega-ag industry. They can't just change their price all of a sudden like farmers who sell directly to customers can. When you're a contract farmer trapped in the broken big ag system, you're stuck. When costs go up but you can't raise your prices, you have no choice but to sell off your herd.
That's a big difference between our model (selling directly to you) and the industrial system that's squeezing most farmers out of business.
Aging farmers and the next generation opting out. The average beef cattle producer in the U.S. is now 58 years old. Many are retiring, and the next generation faces huge barriers: capital, experience, and just finding the help to do the work.
But there's another reason the next generation isn't jumping into farming: it's not respected or valued like it used to be. Farming used to be a career that would allow you to support a family and make a decent living. Sadly, that's not the case anymore. Young people see their parents and grandparents working themselves to the bone for barely any return, and they're choosing different paths. Can you blame them?
The result of this has been the slow disappearance of the small farm. It's been happening since the 1950s. Here's a chart from the USDA Economic Research service:
The result? As it relates to beef, production in 2025 was down nearly 4% compared to 2024. And it's expected to keep dropping in 2026.
2- Strong Demand Meets Tight Supply
Here's the other side of the equation: people still want beef. A lot of it.
Domestic beef demand is at its highest level since 1983. Younger consumers (millennials and Gen Z) are prioritizing fresh, minimally processed foods. High-protein diets are popular. And despite retail beef prices sitting above $9 per pound, people are still buying.
Interestingly, the push toward plant-based and vegan diets seems to be losing steam. After peaking around 2020, interest in plant-based meat alternatives has declined. Consumers are increasingly concerned about ultra-processed foods, and many plant-based products fall into that category. People are realizing that a heavily processed vegan burger isn't necessarily healthier than real meat from a well-raised animal. The focus is shifting back to whole foods... and that includes quality meat.
When demand is strong and supply is tight, prices go up. That's just how it works.
Experts are predicting that full grown cattle prices will rise another $165 to $240 per head in 2026. That's roughly a 10-15% increase on top of already record-high prices. Farm-level cattle prices were already up 26.5% year-over-year in 2025. Conventional retail beef at $9 a pound is going to be common this year.
3- The U.S. Is Importing More Beef... And It's Getting More Expensive
With domestic production down, the US has been importing more beef than ever before.
In 2024, the U.S. imported 4.64 billion pounds of beef, a record amount. In 2025, that number jumped to an estimated 5.27 billion pounds, and it's expected to hit 5.5 billion pounds in 2026. That's an 18% increase in just two years.
Beef is coming in from Australia, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Argentina. But even with all these imports, it's not enough to bring prices down. In fact, beef imports increased by over 45% in early 2025 compared to the year before, and prices still went up 14%.
Here's why: the U.S. primarily imports lean manufacturing beef used for ground beef production. It doesn't replace the grain-fed, high-quality cuts that American consumers want. So imports help supplement the ground beef market, but they don't solve the overall supply problem.
And those imports are getting more expensive too. Tariffs on Brazilian beef, border closures with Mexico due to disease concerns, and tightening supplies in other countries are all driving up the cost of imported beef.
4- Processing Capacity Is Shrinking Too
To make things even tighter, some of the major beef processors are cutting back.
For example, Tyson Foods just announced they're closing their beef plant in Lexington, Nebraska, and converting their Amarillo, Texas facility to a single shift. This cut their capacity in half.
Why? Money, of course. They're losing money. Tyson reported an adjusted loss of $426 million from its beef business in fiscal year 2025, and they're projecting losses of $400-600 million in 2026.
Here's what's happening: cattle supplies are so low that processing plants can't operate at full capacity. Nationally, beef processors were running at only 81.5% capacity in late 2025, with some plants as low as 75%. When you can't fill your plant with cattle to process, you're paying all the overhead costs (labor, equipment, utilities) but not generating enough revenue to cover them.
At the same time, cattle prices have skyrocketed. Tyson's cattle costs went up nearly $2 billion in one year. So processors are paying record prices for fewer cattle, operating below capacity, and losing money on every head they process.
The Lexington and Amarillo changes will eliminate 7-9% of total U.S. beef processing capacity. And industry experts think at least one more large plant and several regional facilities could close within the next 18 months.
Fewer plants processing fewer cattle means less beef available, which pushes prices even higher.
5- The Herd Isn't Rebuilding Yet
You'd think with beef prices this high, ranchers would be rushing to grow their herds again. But it's not that simple.
Rebuilding a cattle herd takes years, and it's expensive.
Here's why: It takes about 9 months for a cow to have a calf. Then that calf needs to grow for another 6-8 months before it's weaned and becomes a feeder calf. Then it goes to a feedlot for another 12-18 months to be finished. So from the time you decide to keep a heifer and breed her, you're looking at roughly 2.5 to 3 years before you have beef to sell.
And during all that time, you're spending money. You're buying cows. Building or expanding infrastructure (fencing, barns, water systems). Paying for feed, vet care, labor. And you're not getting any of that money back for years. It's a massive cash flow problem.
What farmer do you know that has a bunch of cash lying around to invest for 3 years with no return?
Right now, only 47% of producers say they're even considering expanding in the next five years. Many just don't have the resources or the confidence that prices will stay high enough to make it worth the risk. High interest rates, aging producers wanting to pay down debt instead of taking on more, and uncertainty about the future are all holding people back.
Most experts agree that any meaningful herd rebuild has been pushed out to 2027 or later. And even then, it'll be slow. That means tight supplies (and high prices) aren't going away anytime soon.
What This Means for Triple E Farms
We're not immune to any of this.
Like every other cattle operation, we're dealing with higher costs across the board. Let me break down what's changed for us.
Our Processing Costs Went Up 8%
We recently switched to a different processor. Our old one was... fine. But it wasn't great.
The quality wasn't consistent. We'd get a brisket that was 50% fat. One roast would be 2 pounds, another would be 5 pounds. And honestly, the facility wasn't as clean as I was comfortable with. When you're selling food directly to families, cleanliness matters.
So we made the switch to a better processor. One that holds higher standards, wastes less meat, and gives us the consistent quality you deserve.
But that came with an 8% increase in processing costs.
The Cost of Buying Beef Went Up
When we buy cattle, whether from our own herd or from other local farmers in our network, those costs have gone way up too.
All those factors I mentioned earlier (drought, herd liquidation, tight supplies, strong demand) they affect us just like everyone else. We're paying more for cattle now than we ever have.
All Our Inputs Keep Rising
And then there's everything else.
Land costs. Fuel. Veterinary care (for example, pregnancy tests used to cost $10 to $15 per cow, now they're $30). Minerals for the herd. Equipment maintenance. Delivery costs (vehicle maintenance, driver pay, coolers, ice).
It's general inflation hitting every corner of the operation. Nothing stays the same. Everything keeps going up.
A Shift in Priorities
Here's something interesting I've been thinking about.
Back in the 1950s, people spent 23%+ of their income on food. Healthcare was a much smaller part of the budget, around $84 per person annually (or about $500 in today's dollars).
Now? It's completely reversed.
The average American spends only about 13% of their income on food, but healthcare costs have exploded. We're spending way more on medical care and way less on what we eat.
Check out this graph from the Center for Economic and Policy Research showing less and less spending on food:
And this one from Omniscient Health showing more and more spending on healthcare (vs income growth):
I'm not saying one is right or wrong. But it does make me think about how our priorities have shifted as a society. We've gotten used to cheap food. And cheap food comes with compromises: factory farming, chemicals, shortcuts, processed ingredients... and therefore worse health overall.
At Triple E, we're not willing to make those compromises. We're raising food the old fashioned way, and that costs more. It always has. It always will.
What Should You Expect from Triple E?
Here's how we're approaching this.
We're going to do everything we can to keep our economy cuts (like ground beef) as affordable as possible. Ground beef is a staple. Families rely on it. We know that.
But we're going to raise prices more on premium cuts like ribeye and filet mignon to make up the difference. Those are the splurge items, the special occasion cuts. If we price those a bit higher, it helps us keep the everyday staples more reasonable.
We're trying to balance it all, staying financially sustainable while making sure you can still afford to feed your family real, clean food.
Why We're Committed to Keeping Prices Fair
Here's what I want you to know: we're not raising prices because we want to. We're doing it because we have to in order to stay in business and keep supplying you with the clean, old fashioned beef you've come to count on.
Our goal has always been to operate a farm that's as financially sustainable as it is environmentally sustainable. That means we can't lose money on every order and hope to make it up in volume. It doesn't work that way.
I wish it didn't have to be this way. But the reality is, if we don't make these adjustments, we won't be here to serve you in the long run. And that's not an option for us.
The Bigger Picture
The beef industry is going through a tough time. Tight supplies, high costs, and strong demand are creating a perfect storm for higher prices. And that's not changing anytime soon.
But here's the silver lining: when you buy from Triple E Farms, you're getting 100% grass-fed beef raised the old fashioned way. No chemicals, no shortcuts, no surprises. You know exactly where your food comes from and how it was raised.
That's worth something. And in a world where beef prices are climbing everywhere, at least you can feel confident about what you're putting on your family's table.
We're grateful for your support. We know higher prices aren't easy for anyone. But we're committed to continuing to bring you the best beef we can. Raised right, processed clean, and delivered fresh.
Thank you for understanding. And thank you for being part of the Triple E community.
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Sources
USDA Economic Research Service - Food Price Outlook
Farm Progress - 2026 Beef Outlook: Tight Supplies, Highest Demand Since 1983
Drovers - What's Your Plan for 2026?
Farm Progress - Beef Supply Drops Push Cattle Prices Higher in 2026
Pine Bluff Commercial - Cost of Beef Expected to Keep Rising as U.S. Production Declines
Beef Magazine - Outlook for 2026 U.S. and Global Beef Production and Trade
DTN Progressive Farmer - Cattle Prices Launch Higher Into 2026
Supermarket News - Beef Prices Will Remain High in 2026
American Ag Network - Beef Prices Poised to Keep Climbing
American Farm Bureau Federation - Economics of U.S. Beef and Cattle Market
Coalition for a Prosperous America - Beef Prices: Blame the Packers, Not America's Ranchers
Axios - Beef Costs Climb to Historic Levels
University of Nebraska-Lincoln - Understanding the Tyson Lexington Plant Closure
Food Navigator - Plant-Based Meat in 2026
US Import Data - Data-Driven Report on US Beef Imports by Country in 2025
